Alliance with LJP will widen BJP’s social base
Why would associate outfit like Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) draw such an enormous interest nationwide once pre-poll surveys have foretold it can’t win over one seat within the next Lok Sabha?
The NDA is courtship him, as was the UPA. Suddenly, a celebration to that larger teams would solely throw political crumbs while not risking its alienation area unit currently able to admit defeat to what the LJP demands.
The sharp interest within the LJP features a social background. The Paswans, given to hot toddy sound for a caste vocation, area unit the foremost predominant cluster among the very backward categories (EBCs) of Bihar. It’s conjointly the foremost militant, standing up to higher castes and capable of obtaining Dalit votes for its candidates wherever they're dominant. With an excellent unfold altogether constituencies, this caste in associatey alliance widens the social support cluster for an alliance and brings in different EBCs to the table.
The BJP’s courtship of Paswan has 2 objectives: one, widening the social base in a very cluster that was in spades anti-BJP, and two, his ‘return’ when he quit the AB Vajpayee cupboard over the 2002 Gujarat riots, rebuts criticism of the BJP as a completely communal party.
Should the LJP be a part of the NDA on Fri, it'd staggeringly weaken the clout of the RJD-Congress mix, for the most part as a result of the LJP depends on candidates from the higher castes and Muslims also. The higher castes area unit altogether with the BJP currently and therefore the Muslims, despite being anti-BJP, may support LJP candidates in bound districts.
However, the larger danger to the RJD is that the Paswan clout in districts like Hajipur, Vaishali and even Chapra. whereas Hajipur, with an enormous higher caste voters of Bhumihars stands solidly with Paswan, his Dalit votes swung it the RJD manner in Vaishali and Chapra, that is Lalu’s curtilage and therefore the body wherever Rabri Hindu deity would stand from. it had been forever the Lalu Prasad-Ram Vilas affability that wont to originated these constituencies for the UPA.
But with Paswan gone, the BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy is in with over a shout when narrowly ending abreast of the losing facet against Lalu within the past.
However, the LJP’s calculations go a lot of on the far side the Lok Sabha polls in Bihar. It rues the actual fact that its clout in alliance with the RJD had ne'er helped it get additional seats. With the BJP on the face of it buoyant associated Ram Vilas’ son Chirag wanting to commence an ‘independent’ political course, freed from his father’s bequest, the LJP currently appearance to realize vastly from any pro-Narendra Modi wave in Bihar.
If their calculations go well, Paswan’s gambit of ‘returning home’ to the NDA may earn the LJP most of the six to eight seats it may fight for.
That many seats translated into assembly segments is near forty, way more than its best showing of twenty nine seats within the 2005 assembly polls, simply before the Lalu-Rabri era finished.
But then, the UPA is additionally relying on the anti-Paswan bias among twenty one Mahadalit castes. Paswan with the NDA may create a Mahadalit backlash, the good thing about that may visit either to the JD(U) or RJD.